Friday, October 2, 2009

Sell correlation

  • global equity markets loose ground as US equity market figures provoked doubt on the strength of the economy rebound: surprise slowdown in manufacturing
  • manufacturing activity > 50 -> signals expansion
  • CDS question: who is providing insurance on CIT? TRADE: short those who may be holding CIT insurance if you believe CIT will go bankrupt
  • KKR (Kohlberg Kravis Roberts) merged with their public fund listed in Amsterdam, may be soon listed in the US
  • Topix: Tokyo stock Price Index, based on float rather than market
  • TRADE: Correlation(developed, emerging, commodity, currency) - how can we sell correlation? Betting that a correlation (crisis) won't happen soon
  • Spending surged on consumer durables as a result of a cash for clukers program
  • IMF: Countries with large trade surplus (China) need to spend in order to sustain growth and accept the appreciation of their currencies
  • recovery spread trade: long emerging markets, short developed
  • Ben Bernanke: financial institutions should pay higher premiums so being 'to big to fail' is less profitable - Glass-Steagall: bank holding company can't hold other financial companies - repealed by Gramm-Leach-Bliley 1999 - going back to separation (commercial, investment banking)
  • Small businesses: 50% workforce, 38% GDP

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