Monday, October 12, 2009

Nickname for Argentinian bonds: Mistresses

  • Citi pays $600k fine for using derivatives to escape taxes
  • Argentina defaulted on $95bn of debt 8 years ago - largest sovereign default in history; blamed it's problems on the IMF; ultra low interest rates are causing some investors to take a look
  • IMF predicts contraction for Saudi Arabia, followed by growth. TRADE: pick up cheap oil companies on thesis worldwide demand will again rise?
  • Companies buy tailored derivatives because such products precisely match the risks to be hedged and avoid messy accounting problems; in this way eliminating OTC derivatives is not the key - what is needed to avoid systemic risk is proper reporting of exposures and the reporting of transparent prices
  • a weaker dollar is the right kind of recovery: shrink current account deficit, and an export-led recovery is the best growth strategy
  • last year: anyone borrowing in YEN to buy AUS would have lost 45% in 3 months.
  • Telefonica increased its dividend 22%. Too soon?

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