- Business, governments looking to issue debt while rates are still low; US bond market had its second busiest day on record. At the end, it's a belief that the market will recover and interest rates will rise
- Dollar moving lower (non-farm payroll data), 1.45 to the euro
- *Earnings Season!* Alcoa reported today, earned 0.01; expected 0.06
- Intel, JP Morgan report Thurs, Fri. Expecting earnings growth of 184% y/y
- Consumer discretionary not expected to rebound as significantly
Myth of BRICs (FT: Tasker, Peter 11-Jan)
- emerging market IPOs have been at double cash value of developed market IPOs
- NO CORRELATION between GDP growth and stock market returns. Countries with high growth potential are not good investment opportunities unless valuations are low
- Macro: emerging markets have under utilized savings and human resources; no motivation to raise returns on existing capital when you have easy access to additional capital
- China bubble: apartment prices 15-20x salary; 50% GDP is fixed-asset investment
- Shanghai index has halved; still too rich
No comments:
Post a Comment