Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Central Banks seeking exits

  • Bernake speaks on dollar: Fed expects to keep rates 'near zero for an extended period', as there is low resource utilization and low expectations for inflation; traders question if he will move beyond talk
  • Japan GDP at 4.8%, stronger than expected, fueled by domestic demand
  • UK: 6th largest economy by nominal GDP (2.6tn). 61 million people. London (7.5m).
  • GM: $8.1bn outstanding, will pay back 1.2bn ahead of schedule. In fresh losses after emerging from bankruptcy
  • Eurozone companies having trouble, as the high euro has decreased sales, compared to countries not on the euro (UK, Switzerland)
  • Baltic Dry Index: cost of moving grain, steel, etc by sea. Can't be seen as a reliable indicator, as significant capacity was added in the boom, and new capacity remains underutilized now in the recovery, distorting costs
  • Japan: weak JGB (Japan Government Bonds) auctions; looking to raise new debt, high yen makes economy uncompetitive, debt/GDP ~ 2, rapidly aging population decreases tax revenues and requires more pension payouts from the state: uh-oh.
  • Foreign ownership of treasuries: 33%, JCB: 7%
  • Since the LIBOR market is liquid again, central banks are looking to unwind 'monetary loosening' policies.
  • Jean-Claude Trichet: European Central Bank president: December will be the last auction of 1-year notes (introduced for crisis); one-month, one-week still common. Free money for too long will promote asset bubbles.
  • Federal reserve has stopped buying treasuries; Bank of England unlikely to extend 200bn pound quantitative easing
  • spread between 3-mo libor and overnight: down to 20 bps, levels at before Lehman

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