- Bernake speaks on dollar: Fed expects to keep rates 'near zero for an extended period', as there is low resource utilization and low expectations for inflation; traders question if he will move beyond talk
- Japan GDP at 4.8%, stronger than expected, fueled by domestic demand
- UK: 6th largest economy by nominal GDP (2.6tn). 61 million people. London (7.5m).
- GM: $8.1bn outstanding, will pay back 1.2bn ahead of schedule. In fresh losses after emerging from bankruptcy
- Eurozone companies having trouble, as the high euro has decreased sales, compared to countries not on the euro (UK, Switzerland)
- Baltic Dry Index: cost of moving grain, steel, etc by sea. Can't be seen as a reliable indicator, as significant capacity was added in the boom, and new capacity remains underutilized now in the recovery, distorting costs
- Japan: weak JGB (Japan Government Bonds) auctions; looking to raise new debt, high yen makes economy uncompetitive, debt/GDP ~ 2, rapidly aging population decreases tax revenues and requires more pension payouts from the state: uh-oh.
- Foreign ownership of treasuries: 33%, JCB: 7%
- Since the LIBOR market is liquid again, central banks are looking to unwind 'monetary loosening' policies.
- Jean-Claude Trichet: European Central Bank president: December will be the last auction of 1-year notes (introduced for crisis); one-month, one-week still common. Free money for too long will promote asset bubbles.
- Federal reserve has stopped buying treasuries; Bank of England unlikely to extend 200bn pound quantitative easing
- spread between 3-mo libor and overnight: down to 20 bps, levels at before Lehman
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Central Banks seeking exits
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