Saturday, September 12, 2009

It's all about the currencies

  • EUR is at the highest level against USD since inception at 1 EUR = 1.46 USD. Most likely will have the side effect of making European exports less attractive to foreign buyers. This could subject the EUR to higher inflation, as it would be difficult to raise interest rates in the current environment of economic recovery. Combination of a strong currency and low supply of credit (banks unable to lend) could push to higher volatility.
  • Weak USD shouldn't worry US, as we're not consuming (e.g. mortgage payments) in EUR.
  • Investors worried about weak currency look to FX, gold, commodities baskets.
  • On average, the year following the steepest declines in USD, stocks/bonds outperform commodity baskets - so it may be too late to catch commodity upside
  • James Gorman takes over Morgan Stanley from John Mack. Adamant about focusing on institutional securities rather than more wealth management
  • Inverse ETF: (short ETF, bear ETF): use derivatives to short a basket, index, etc. Do not require a margin account, as is usually the case for shorts
  • Leveraged ETFs are typically 2:1. Maintaining constant leverage is silly, as it requires a tremendous amount of trading, for no real benefit.
  • SPDR: S&P Depository Receipts
  • Depository Receipt: security traded on a local exchange that represents an equity share in a foreign corporation
  • Program trading: Aug 31 - Sept 4th: 30% of NYSE volume, 785 MM shares/day

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